32.1: Epidemic Dynamics - Discrete Case
- Page ID
- 69576
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The dynamics of infection and the spread of an epidemic can be modeled as a linear dynamical system.
We count the fraction of the population in the following four groups:
- Susceptible: the individuals can be infected next day
- Infected: the infected individuals
- Recovered (and immune): recovered individuals from the disease and will not be infected again
- Deceased: the individuals died from the disease
We denote the fractions of these four groups in \(x(t)\). For example \(x(t)=(0.8,0.1,0.05,0.05)\) means that at day \(t\), 80% of the population are susceptible, 10% are infected, 5% are recovered and immuned, and 5% died.
We choose a simple model here. After each day,
- 5% of the susceptible individuals will get infected
- 3% of infected inviduals will die
- 10% of infected inviduals will recover and immuned to the disease
- 4% of infected inviduals will recover but not immuned to the disease
- 83% of the infected inviduals will remain
If we start with \(x(0)=(1,0,0,0)\) for day 0. Use the for
loop to find the distribution of the four groups after 50 days.
Write a program to apply the above transformation matrix for 200 iterations and plot the results.